Covid-19: Washington State Leadership in Dealing With Coronavirus

Washington State has immense resources to apply to the coronavirus crisis.

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One of the leading university medical centers in the world.
Major biotech firms and a huge foundation dedicated to health science (Gates Foundation)
The world's leading logistics and delivery firm (Amazon).
One of leading brick and mortar food and supply firms (Costco)
World-leading software and machine learning firms and expertise (e.g., Microsoft, Amazon)
One of the leading tech centers in the world.

Our state has intellectual, scientific, technological, and financial resources equivalent to those of many nations.

Might we take a leadership role in tackling this crisis, not only for ourselves, but for the rest of the world as well? 

Could Washington State lead the nation in heavily investing in a complementary approach to social distancing, online learning, and sending people home from work?    Might Washington State fill the void left by an ineffective Federal response?

Importantly, could the current environment of despair and fear, be replaced with a more empowered one?

Imagine the following path in the future.

One in which local businesses and academic, put state capabilities on an immediate "war footing" to address the threat.

On March 18th, The University of Washington and major regional biotech firms, with the financial support of the Gates and Bezos foundations, announce that they will rapidly build the capacity to provide 100,000 tests a day for the coronavirus in Washington State, with results available within hours.  This includes the purchase of several Roche cobas 6800 systems that will have the capacity of processing over a million tests per month.  Such testing capacity is expect to be in place by April 10.

Governor Inslee announced on the same day that the test will be immediately available to all doctors and hospitals and that 50,000 test per day will be dedicated to random sampling of state residents.  Testing at this level began on April 3rd.

Governor Inslee noted  that anyone with a positive test will be experience mandatory quarantine.  He further noted that a new state fund will cover the salary of any quarantined individual.

"South Korea showed that potential of coupling massive testing with quarantine, and we will take this approach to a new level", announced the Governor.

The Governor also noted that all skilled nursing and other retirement communities will require all patient and caregivers to be tested, as will all visitors. " We must take all steps required to prevent our most vulnerable citizens from being exposed to this threat".

Jeff Bezos, leader of Amazon, announced on March 17th that Amazon would deliver food and other necessary supplies without delivery charge during the next 30 days.  "We will extend this offer, if the situation does not resolve itself," said Bezos.   "And considering that many people are home-bound, we will make all content on Amazon Prime freely available to the general public.  Amazon runs the biggest supply chain system in the world, and we will use it to assure food and other supplies will reach all home-bound" patients", said Bezos.

Costco also joined the effort, with a temporary program of no-cost delivery and the new ability to pre-order and pick up orders outside of any warehouse.  "No Costco shopper need to enter a store to purchase any of our products", noted Costco CEO W. Craig Jelinek.

A major issue had been the relatively simple modeling used to predict coronavirus spread and deaths, and their relative poor performance.   On March 16th, a joint effort between the University of Washington, the Gates Foundation, and the data analytics groups of Microsoft and Amazon was initiated to produce state-of-science predictive modeling for coronavirus by early April.   "

Microsoft has huge capacity in predictive analytics and machine learning, with particular expertise in the medical area.  Coupled with the expertise of the University of Washington and others, we will build the capability to more skillfully predict the trajectory of COVID-19 using the increasing volume of data assets" explained Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella.

By June the effects of massive testing and quarantine, coupled with the isolating of the most vulnerable elderly and infirm as well as social distancing, resulted in a significant decline of new cases, with regional loss of life in Washington State far more limited than initially expected.   The beneficial role of  warmer weather and contribution of the large pool of now-immune young people who had mild or little symptoms may also have been important in lessening the impact of COVID-19.

Addendum:  Why Massive Testing of the Population is How We Get Out of This

Social distancing may be a useful, short-term stop gap, but in the end something more effective is needed.   Social distance can buy time, but it is essentially kicking the can down the road, and society can not keep it in place for long without undermining its ability to function,  Economic activity will collapse.

The key aspect of social distancing is to prevent large portions of the population from getting in contact with an infected individual.  It does this by shutting down all avenues of interaction and gathering.    It is a blunt tool with significant negative impacts (e.g., cancellation of schools or degradation of teaching).



Far better to use a more precise tool:  massive testing.   Find the infected individuals and take them out of circulation.  Much more effective and less damaging.  This allows society to function, but it requires the ability to give  tens of thousands of tests per day or more, something that is technologically well within our reach.

Another issue with social distancing is that you can never cut off interactions completely--leaving a continuous base of cases and as soon as you pull back the restraints, the virus can explode again.

Source: Cordtwain.info

Coronavirus Outbreak Affect Weather Forecasting !

Weather prediction is an essential technology that both protects the economy and saves lives.

National Weather Service personnel are considered critical personnel and are still working, but they are dependent on numerical weather prediction models, which in turn are dependent on the quality and quantity of weather data going into them.

And it appears that one important data source is declining rapidly in volume, aircraft observations.

And such observations are particularly important for the West Coast of the U.S., which has a vast ocean to our west.

To produce a numerical weather prediction, a three-dimensional description of the atmosphere needs to be created, something called the initialization. Over land there are lots of surface observations and balloon-launched weather observations (radiosondes), but obviously there are far fewer of these  over the ocean.  In the old days of numerical weather prediction, forecast skill was less downstream of oceans because of the large oceanic data voids.

But this situation changed profoundly with the advent of weather satellites and the use of weather observations from commercial aircraft.  The oceans now had substantial numbers of observations, driving a rapid increase of weather prediction skill. Weather satellites are now the dominant source of oceanic weather information, but aircraft observations (known as ACARS observations or AMDAR) are quite important.

The distribution of aircraft observations in January 2020 is shown below (courtesy of the the European Center --ECMWF).  The number of observations is shown by the colors (red and orange are the most).   Importantly, the are a large number of observations between the West Coast and Hawaii, most of which are at important jet stream elevations (30,000 to 40,000 ft).  There are also considerable number of observations from flight going between North America and Asia.

As noted by this graphic from ECMWF, the number of aircraft observations has grown rapidly due to more flights and increased numbers of aircraft with the appropriate weather sensors.

A number of studies have examined the importance of aircraft observations for weather prediction.  As illustrated below, automated aircraft observations (AIREP) are about fourth in importance overall (more important than surface observations!), and data denial experiments at ECMWF, in which they reran forecasts without using the aircraft observations) indicated a decline of forecast skill in the upper troposphere (again roughly 30,000 to 40,000 ft) by about 10% and some degradation near the surface (by roughly 3%). 

Not the end of the world, but significant.  But what about regions downstream of oceans?  Could the impact be larger?   That is an analysis I have not seen.

But there is a problem, particularly for us on the West Coast for short-term forecasts and for the entire nation in the longer term.  There is a huge decline of air travel going on now.   And the decline in air travel is about to plummet.

Hawaiian Airlines will soon cancel most of its flights to the mainland, and Alaska is planning on pausing on about 70% of its flights (some to Hawaii).   Flights to Asia are down profoundly already.  The latest statistics from the FlightAware website indicates nearly 16,000 flight cancellation today, with nearly half cancelled out of San Francisco and about a quarter at SeaTac and LA (red colors below).   This is only the beginning.

So how much degradation in forecasts will occur as aircraft observations profoundly decline? To what degree will the impacts be greater for land areas downstream of oceans?

Considering the key role of satellite observations, one might expect the degradation to be modest, but perceptible.

The latest forecast skill statistics over the Pacific/North American area (called the PNA region) available from the National Weather Service for the five-day forecast of near jet stream level (see below) does not suggest anything significant at this point (particularly since there is a lot of natural variation in forecast skill).  In this plot, 1 (top) is a perfect forecast and several forecast models are shown (black--US GFS, red-European Center, green-Canadian), orange-UKMET).

Numerical experiments to determine the impact could be done, but will probably be relatively low priority.

Aircraft in flight at 9:30 AM this morning (from the wonderful FightAware site).  This is already well down from normal, but a lot more than will be flying in a week

In the longer term, the impacts on weather prediction will be substantial for other reasons.  Weather research and communication is being profoundly degraded.  Major meetings and conferences have been canceled (including the NW Weather Workshop) and research is made difficult and far less effective.  We are all trying to work at home and use online communication, but the degradation is real and will increase with time.

Source: Cordtwain.info/News

Coronavirus: Indonesia has succeeded in making 20 million Chloroquine (coronavirus drugs) Trump is very supportive

Public statements by the US and Indonesian presidents have sent demand for the drug – usually used to treat malaria – rocketing

 Information Covid-19

Update Today:

Info COVID-19 Indonesia

POSITIF     SEMBUH    MENINGGAL

Yet its effectiveness against Covid-19 is at best unproven and in the wrong hands it can be fatal

First they came for the vitamins, then they came for the face masks and the hand sanitiser. And then they came for the chloroquine.

Ever since the coronavirus was discovered, more and more customers have been coming to the Iskandar Muda Pharmacy in Medan, Indonesia, looking for ways to keep themselves and their loved ones safe.

In the past two days, customers have been arriving in droves in search of chloroquine, a drug that derives from quinine and is usually used to treat malaria.

“At first we were confused about why people wanted it, then we saw that [President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo] had announced that it was a possible treatment for Covid-19,” explained pharmacist Maria. “It all made sense.”

© Aisyah Llewellyn A pharmacy sign in Indonesia says ‘All masks, alcohol and hand sanitiser are sold out’. Photo: Aisyah Llewellyn

On March 23, Indonesia’s president announced the country had ordered 3 million chloroquine tablets. Chloroquine comes from the cinchona tree which grows widely across Indonesia. “There is neither a cure nor an antiviral to Covid-19, but in drawing from the experiences of countries, chloroquine can be used to help patients recover from disease,” Widodo said. He added that the tablets would be distributed to patients through hospitals.

There is no chloroquine at the Iskandar Muda Pharmacy, even though Maria reported up to 50 customers a day trying to source the drug. But increasingly grim statistics are helping to drive the demand regardless.

As of Wednesday, Indonesia had reported 790 infections, 58 deaths and 31 recoveries. However, studies this week suggested the true numbers could be far worse. The London-based Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases estimated as few as 2 per cent of Indonesia’s infections had been reported. That would bring the true number to as many as 34,300, more than Iran. Other modellers have projected a worst-case scenario of 5 million cases in the capital, Jakarta, by the end of April.

Indonesia’s geography may make matters worse. Its health care system is highly decentralised, given that it is a sprawling archipelago of more than 17,000 islands with 260 million people, and is already under strain with a shortage of staff, beds and protective equipment.

© Reuters Indonesian President Joko Widodo inspects a hospital handling Covid-19 cases in Jakarta. Photo: Reuters

PRAISED BY TRUMP

Widodo is not alone in his praise of chloroquine. US President Donald Trump has also been regularly touting it on social media and in press briefings, despite any comprehensive evidence that it is effective against coronavirus.

In fact, a study by the Journal of Zhejiang University in China found chloroquine and a similar drug hydroxychloroquine had little effect on the coronavirus. In its study of 30 patients with the coronavirus, 15 were given hydroxychloroquine and 15 received conventional treatment like oxygen and bed rest. Of the 15 given the drug 13 shed the virus within a week. Of the 15 given the standard treatment, 14 recovered within a week, while one patient remained infected.

While a study on such a small scale can’t be considered definitive either way, even White House insiders are sceptical of the two drugs’ benefits in treating the coronavirus. Coronavirus task force member Anthony Fauci said any evidence so far was only “anecdotal”.

Even so, trials of the drugs have started in New York and public health experts in France are considering using them for extremely ill patients. Eight hundred people are taking part in trials as part of a wider initiative across Europe involving 3,200 patients.

Meanwhile, as potential demand surges across the globe, India banned exports of hydroxychloroquine on March 25 with immediate effect.

© AFP US President Donald Trump has regularly touted the use of chloroquine. Photo: AFP

MORE HARM THAN GOOD

The problem with chloroquine’s sudden rise to fame is that while it remains unclear if it can help those with coronavirus, it could actually cause more harm than good if people buy the drug and self-medicate. There have been reports of poisonings in Nigeria and the United States, where one man in Arizona died on March 24 after ingesting chloroquine phosphate, which is also used to clean aquariums and fish tanks.

The side effects of chloroquine include problems with heart rhythm, dangerously low blood pressure and damage to the body’s muscles and nerves.

For Dr Corona Rintawan, an emergency medicine doctor who is now the head of a task force in Indonesia run by Muhamadiyyah (the second largest non-governmental Muslim organisation in the country), self medication with chloroquine is almost a bigger worry than the virus itself.

“I am worried [about people poisoning themselves] and I think most other doctors are too,” he said. “I think the government must have regulations about chloroquine buying and implement them. As long as there are online shops selling chloroquine, people will be able to order it freely.”

A number of sellers of the drug have popped up online in the past few days, making regulations a challenge. It is also difficult to stop people from trying to source chloroquine through any means possible, given the psychological toll the virus is taking on people around the world, according to Irna Minauli, a psychologist based in Medan.

“If we look at the vicarious learning model theory, people learn by what they see other people doing. So if they get information about a drug that can help them and see or hear of people trying to buy it, they will do the same,” she said.

© Reuters Workers disinfect areas of Jakarta, Indonesia, to prevent the spread of the coronavirus disease, Covid-19. Photo: Reuters

DISINFORMATION

This information, or disinformation, about chloroquine has spread rapidly on Indonesian social media according to Santi Indra Astuti, a lecturer in the Faculty of Communication Science at the Islamic University of Bandung (UNISBA) and the Head of the Research Department of Mafindo, an online fact checking civil society organisation.

“Right now, we’ve found that hoaxes regarding coronavirus are spreading massively,” she said. “In terms of quantity, it is overwhelming. We have collected data regarding Covid-19 hoaxes since January and recent data shows that the number has risen to 201 in eight weeks.”

Mafindo has volunteer fact checkers in 18 cities across Indonesia who have been data mapping Covid-19 hoaxes and compiling an online resource to debunk them.

Astuti said chloroquine disinformation had become a new issue in recent days. “We found that the information about chloroquine has been spreading, most of it through WhatsApp. It became our concern that doctors or whoever was quoted in the messages have not yet been proven as reliable sources. The discourse regarding chloroquine itself is still ongoing, so we are collecting information about that and publishing it so that people know what’s going on. Overall, our fact checkers reported that hoaxes regarding alternative medicine, herbs or medicine have been rising this past week.”

When asked how Indonesia’s health authorities can best ensure that Widodo’s latest comments don’t set off a chain of illicit chloroquine purchases, Corona said that they need to, “Put out statements that people should not buy it through the media.”

This was echoed by Astuti, who said Mafindo had “received a call for collaboration from local governments and administration, as well as related institutions such as health units, religious groups and professional associations to share information and fact check strategies”.

“As the situation in Indonesia gets worse, we need to combat it online,” she added.

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Source : Cortdwain.info

Sport Betting Agreement With Delaware

IGT Signs Multi-State Sports Betting Agreement With Delaware North Companies Gaming & Entertainment, Inc. 

IGT PlaySports to power sports betting at Delaware North casinos in West Virginia and Arkansas LONDON, Jan. 28, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- International Game Technology PLC ("IGT") (NYSE: IGT) announced today that it signed a multi-state sports betting agreement with Delaware North Companies Gaming & Entertainment, Inc. ("Delaware North") to power retail and mobile sports betting in West Virginia and retail sports betting in Arkansas. IGT is the global leader in gaming. We enable players to experience their favorite games across all channels and regulated segments, from Gaming Machines and Lotteries to Interactive and Social Gaming. Leveraging a wealth of premium content, substantial investment in innovation, in-depth customer intelligence, operational expertise and leading-edge technology, our gaming solutions anticipate the demands of consumers wherever they decide to play. We have a well-established local presence and relationships... More "Delaware North is confidently partnering with IGT to deliver sports betting to our customers and the many sports fans in West Virginia and Arkansas through world-class IGT PlaySports technology," said Brian Hansberry, Delaware North's Gaming Division President. "IGT is a serious sports betting technology provider with a proven commitment to customer success, excellent global reputation, and a reliable, omni-channel sports betting solution for the U.S. Market. We believe the IGT PlaySports solution will help us establish Delaware North as a preferred sports betting provider in West Virginia and Arkansas while enabling us to further reward our Lucky North Club members." "We're proud to add Delaware North to our growing list of U.S.-based customers leveraging PlaySports technology to offer reliable, best-in-class sports betting experiences to their patrons," said Enrico Drago, IGT PlayDigital Senior Vice President. "Delaware North can count on IGT's experienced team and trusted technology to help build a sports betting business that can scale for the opportunities of today and the future." Under the terms of the agreement, IGT will provide Delaware North's West Virginia casinos Mardi Gras Casino & Resort in Cross Lanes and Wheeling Island Casino-Hotel-Racetrack in Wheeling Island with retail and mobile sports betting technology. IGT PlaySports technology will also power retail sports betting at Southland Casino Racing in West Memphis, Ark. In addition to West Virginia and Arkansas, Delaware North operates casinos and other gaming properties in New York, Illinois, Florida, Ohio, Arizona, and Australia. IGT PlaySports is currently powering sports betting in 11 U.S. States: Oregon, Arkansas, Indiana, Iowa, New York, Pennsylvania, Mississippi, West Virginia, Rhode Island, New Jersey, and Nevada. To learn why winners choose IGT PlaySports visit IGT.Com. About IGTIGT (NYSE:IGT) is the global leader in gaming. We deliver entertaining and responsible gaming experiences for players across all channels and regulated segments, from Gaming Machines and Lotteries to Sports Betting and Digital. Leveraging a wealth of compelling content, substantial investment in innovation, player insights, operational expertise, and leading-edge technology, our solutions deliver unrivaled gaming experiences that engage players and drive growth. We have a well-established local presence and relationships with governments and regulators in more than 100 countries around the world, and create value by adhering to the highest standards of service, integrity, and responsibility. IGT has more than 12,000 employees. For more information, please visit www.Igt.Com. About Delaware North Delaware North is one of the largest privately held hospitality companies in the world. Founded in 1915 and owned by the Jacobs family for more than 100 years, Delaware North has global operations at high-profile places such as sports and entertainment venues, national and state parks, destination resorts and restaurants, airports, and regional casinos. Our 55,000 employee associates are dedicated to creating special experiences one guest at a time in serving more than a half-billion guests annually. Delaware North operates in the sports, travel hospitality, restaurant and catering, parks, resorts, gaming, and specialty retail industries and has annual revenue of about $3.7 billion. Learn more about Delaware North, a global leader in hospitality, at www.DelawareNorth.Com. Story continues Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking StatementsThis news release may contain forward-looking statements (including within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995) concerning International Game Technology PLC and its consolidated subsidiaries (the "Company") and other matters. These statements may discuss goals, intentions, and expectations as to future plans, trends, events, dividends, results of operations, or financial condition, or otherwise, based on current beliefs of the management of the Company as well as assumptions made by, and information currently available to, such management. Forward-looking statements may be accompanied by words such as "aim," "anticipate," "believe," "plan," "could," "would," "should," "shall," "continue," "estimate," "expect," "forecast," "future," "guidance," "intend," "may," "will," "possible," "potential," "predict," "project" or the negative or other variations of them. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date on which such statements are made and are subject to various risks and uncertainties, many of which are outside the Company's control. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should any of the underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may differ materially from those predicted in the forward-looking statements and from past results, performance, or achievements. Therefore, you should not place undue reliance on such statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include (but are not limited to) the factors and risks described in the Company's annual report on Form 20-F for the financial year ended December 31, 2018 and other documents filed from time to time with the SEC, which are available on the SEC's website at www.Sec.Gov and on the investor relations section of the Company's website at www.IGT.Com. Except as required under applicable law, the Company does not assume any obligation to update these forward-looking statements. You should carefully consider these factors and other risks and uncertainties that affect the Company's business. Nothing in this news release is intended, or is to be construed, as a profit forecast or to be interpreted to mean that financial performance of the Company for the current or any future financial years will necessarily match or exceed the historical published financial performance of the Company, as applicable. All forward-looking statements contained in this news release are qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement. All subsequent written or oral forward-looking statements attributable to International Game Technology PLC, or persons acting on its behalf, are expressly qualified in its entirety by this cautionary statement. Contact:Phil O'Shaughnessy, Global Communications, toll free in U.S./Canada +1 (844) IGT-7452; outside U.S./Canada +1 (401) 392-7452Francesco Luti, +39 3485475493; for Italian media inquiriesJames Hurley, Investor Relations, +1 (401) 392-7190Marc Heintzman, Delaware North Corporate Communications, +1 (716) 716.858.5112/ mheintzman@delawarenorth.Com   © 2020 IGT The trademarks and/or service marks used herein are either trademarks or registered trademarks of IGT, its affiliates or its licensors. View original content to download multimedia:http://www.Prnewswire.Com/news-releases/igt-signs-multi-state-sports-betting-agreement-with-delaware-north-companies-gaming--entertainment-inc-300993808.Html SOURCE International Game Technology PLC